Global Commodity Prices Rise in 2026 from Iran War Disruptions

commodity prices are projected to increase in 2026, reaching the highest levels since 2022, according to the World Bank. The rise is attributed to the continuing war in Iran, which has disrupted supplies of key industrial materials such as oil and metals.

These disruptions are a primary factor in the anticipated price escalation, though no specific timeline for the changes was provided. Oil prices rose due to tight supply conditions linked to the conflict. The war, triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, has reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, where around 20% of global oil typically passes.

U.S. crude increased 2.09% to $96.37 per barrel, while Brent crude rose 2.75% to $108.23 per barrel, marking a two-week high for oil and six straight days of gains for Brent.

talks between the United States and Iran have stalled, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remaining limited. Analysts estimate that 10-13 million barrels of oil per day are not reaching global markets, as ship traffic has dropped sharply—only seven vessels crossed in a 24-hour period compared to around 140 daily before the war.

Six tankers carrying Iranian oil were forced back due to a U.S. blockade. com). The White House stated that President Donald Trump is reviewing a proposal from Iran. Mediators from Pakistan indicated that talks to bridge differences continue, with investors believing a resolution may occur later.

However, markets remain cautious amid geopolitical risks, including Israeli strikes in eastern Lebanon during a ceasefire with Hezbollah and Russia's statement of support for Iran.

prices slipped amid rising bond yields and investor focus on equities and economic data. Spot gold fell 0.62% to $4,679.09 per ounce, as funds shifted toward stocks and interest rate signals reduced demand for non-yielding assets. Stock markets showed mixed responses.