Reserve Bank of Australia Raises Interest Rates

Fighting erupted in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening a fragile truce in the Middle East, according to a Semafor report. The flareup has contributed to declines in currency and stock benchmarks for developing economies, as detailed in a Bloomberg article. Separately, oil prices eased in the U.S., per a Wall Street Journal update.

Australia's Reserve Bank increased its policy rate to 4.35%, the highest level since December 2024, in response to elevated inflation. Inflation in Australia stood at 4.09% in the first quarter, with March at 4.6%, marking the highest in more than two years.

The central bank indicated that Middle East developments are adding to inflation pressures, potentially leading to second-round effects on goods and services. Updated forecasts project inflation at 4.8% for the June quarter and 4% for the year ending 2026, revised from previous estimates.

Economic growth projections for Australia were adjusted to 1.3% for 2026, with the policy rate anticipated to reach 4.7% by December 2026. A senior APAC economist at Capital Economics forecasted rates could rise to 4.60% in the third quarter, noting risks of higher-than-expected inflation data.

Fourth-quarter growth was reported at 2.6% year-over-year. Globally, inflation expectations for the next 10 years have increased to 2.5%, the highest since 2023, based on breakeven rates from a post by Bloomberg Television host Lisa Abramowicz.

The Asian Development Bank urged countries to limit fuel subsidies to vulnerable groups, according to a Japan Times report. Japan has capped gasoline prices at around ¥170 per liter following surges to ¥190 after the conflict began.

Kenya is set to host the Africa-France Summit next week, the first in a non-Francophone nation since 1973, following a new defense cooperation agreement. The agreement includes the arrival of 800 French soldiers in Mombasa for joint exercises. The five-year pact, renewable for another five, covers maritime security, intelligence exchange, and disaster relief.

Kenyan officials described it as enhancing defense capacity through French training and technology. France's shift toward East Africa is linked to economic and security concerns over global supply chains. Kenya has been designated a major non-NATO ally and hosts U.S. and British troops, with the U.S. State Department providing over $70 million for runway expansions at Manda Bay Air Base.

The agreement grants French troops immunity from prosecution in Kenyan courts. Kenya's foreign ministry has not issued additional public comments on the pact as of the sources' publication dates.

In Iran, executions have reached the highest level in 30 years since the war's start, per a Semafor article. Thousands of political dissidents are believed to have been arrested, with unnamed sources expressing fears of reduced opportunities for political liberalization.

The article notes the regime appears entrenched, with increased arrests and executions following anti-regime protests. " No official statements from Iran's government on these figures were included in the source.

HSBC outlined a scenario involving stock markets declining 35% and oil prices reaching $145, according to a MarketWatch report. The bank has also promoted a tokenized gold product that achieved $1 billion in trading value. HSBC's stock experienced a slump due to high provisions.