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A Nature paper published by the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration shows the speed of obesity increase was greater in 2024 than any prior year since 1980 for women in 84 countries and men in 109. Rates have leveled off in most high-income nations and appear to be declining in France, Italy and Portugal, though authors say it is too soon to declare those changes permanent.
news-medical.netThe velocity of obesity was greater in 2024 than in any other year over the 45-year period for women in 84 of 200 countries and for men in 109 of 200 countries, according to a study published in Nature on May 14, 2025. The analysis, led by Majid Ezzati, tracked obesity prevalence as measured by BMI from 1980 through 2024.
It drew on a database of height and weight among 232 million participants in more than 4,000 population-based studies around the world.
The NCD Risk Factor Collaboration, an international group of 2,000 scientists following noncommunicable diseases, produced the report. Ezzati, a professor in the School of Public Health at Imperial College London and academic director of the health collaboration Imperial Global Ghana, led the new study. Increasing obesity rates have leveled off in most high-income countries.
Rates appear to be declining in France, Italy, and Portugal, but the study authors said it is too soon to tell if that is a durable change. It is also too soon to see what effect obesity drugs might have on obesity trends, the study authors stated. Jennifer Baker, president-elect of the European Association for the Study of Obesity and a study co-author, said greater uptake of obesity management medications could potentially affect the trend in the future.
"But I think the really important thing is we don’t lose sight of the importance of prevention," Baker added. In the United States, obesity has hit a plateau in children and adolescents. Obesity rates are still climbing for adults, if not as fast as before.
American obesity ranges from 20% to 23% for girls and boys and from 40% to 43% for women and men. U.S. obesity rates rank No. 1 among high-income Western countries. In Japan, obesity rates are 3% to 7% for girls and boys and 4% to 8% for women and men.
"The rise is not inevitable," Majid Ezzati said in a media briefing on May 13, 2025. " Ezzati added that the data reveal diversity of trajectories. "We have a diversity of trajectories across countries.
R. Guha Pradeepa, a study co-author from Madras University, said there is an acceleration of obesity in India and other Asian countries due to economic growth, rapid urbanization, and a shift from traditional diets to energy-dense processed foods. William Dietz, a professor of exercise and nutritional sciences at George Washington University School of Public Health, described the study’s approach of looking at trajectories based on year-to-year changes in BMI or obesity prevalence as an “odd approach” that makes it hard to interpret.
Stat reported that the study authors said their method reveals useful points for comparison, for example spotlighting outliers like the United States. The paper did not set out to establish cause and effect, though Ezzati alluded to research on possible explanatory factors including post-World War II industrial food systems and later public knowledge about healthy choices.
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