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Goldman Sachs Projects $12,650 Copper Price with 490,000-Ton Surplus in 2026 Amid Supply Disruptions

Goldman Sachs maintains a $12,650 per metric ton price target for copper in 2026, projecting a 490,000-ton market surplus. The forecast faces risks from the Strait of Hormuz closure and China's upcoming ban on sulfuric acid exports. These disruptions affect sulfuric acid supplies essential for copper production.

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Benzinga
2 sources·Apr 22, 9:47 AM(14 days ago)·1m read|
Goldman Sachs Projects $12,650 Copper Price with 490,000-Ton Surplus in 2026 Amid Supply Disruptionsabc.net.au
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Goldman Sachs has maintained its price target of $12,650 per metric ton for copper in 2026, according to the bank's forecast. The projection includes an expected market surplus of 490,000 tons for the metal in that year. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the war with Iran started, disrupting global commodity flows.

Around 40% of global sulfur exports pass through the strait, impacting supplies critical for copper production. Sulfuric acid serves as an essential compound for solvent extraction and electrowinning in copper production. China's ban on sulfuric acid exports takes effect on May 1, 2026, cutting off a key supply line for miners.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens the premise of returning to normal traffic, which underpins forecasts like Goldman Sachs'. Sulfur shortages from the strait exacerbate challenges in obtaining sulfuric acid for copper processing methods. BHP Group Limited trades on the NYSE under the ticker BHP.

These vertically integrated majors use centralized procurement to navigate merchant acid market disruptions.

Key Facts

Copper price forecast
Goldman Sachs maintains a price target of $12,650 per metric ton for copper in 2026.
Market surplus projection
Goldman Sachs forecasts a 490,000-ton market surplus for copper in 2026.
Strait of Hormuz closure
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the war with Iran started, affecting 40% of global sulfur exports.
China export ban
China banned sulfuric acid exports effective May 1, 2026.
Sulfuric acid role
Sulfuric acid is essential for solvent extraction and electrowinning in copper production.
copper-marketcommodity-pricesstrait-of-hormuzsulfuric-acid-exportsmining-industryglobal-supply-chains

Story Timeline

3 events
  1. 2026-05-01

    China's ban on sulfuric acid exports takes effect.

    1 sourceunattributed
  2. 2026-04-22

    Goldman Sachs maintains $12,650 per metric ton price target for copper in 2026 and forecasts 490,000-ton surplus.

    1 sourceGoldman Sachs via Reuters
  3. unspecified recent

    Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since the war with Iran started.

    1 sourceunattributed

Potential Impact

  1. 01

    China's export ban severs supply lines for Southern Hemisphere miners, potentially shifting reliance to alternative sources.

  2. 02

    Disruptions in sulfuric acid supply could increase copper production costs for miners reliant on SX-EW methods.

  3. 03

    Closure of Strait of Hormuz may lead to shortages in global sulfur exports, affecting copper market surplus forecasts.

  4. 04

    Vertically integrated firms like BHP and Rio Tinto may gain advantage through centralized procurement amid acid market disruptions.

Transparency Panel

Sources cross-referenced2
Framing risk0/100 (low)
Confidence score74%
Synthesized bySubstrate AI
Word count166 words
PublishedApr 22, 2026, 9:47 AM
Bias signals removed3 across 3 outlets
Signal Breakdown
promotional 2Loaded 1
Original Sources
@ForbesThis Entrepreneur Is Using AI To Solve The Global Nutrition Crisis And Dominate The MarketBenzingaBHP Turns To Africa, As Hormuz Threatens Copper Surplus Thesis

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