Study Links ICE Enforcement to U.S.-Born Worker Job Losses

Researchers at the University of Colorado Boulder analyzed labor market data from the past year, during which ICE arrests surged. They concluded that the removal of undocumented workers disrupts complementary roles in the economy, affecting native-born employment.

The study estimates that over 1.2 million foreign-born workers have left the labor force amid the crackdown. In areas with increased ICE raids and checkpoints, employment for undocumented immigrants dropped by 4 to 5 percent. U.S.-born workers with a high school degree or less also saw reduced job opportunities, with no evidence of wage increases or new openings in immigrant-heavy sectors.

Focusing on male workers, who are more likely to be affected, the research found that in high-enforcement areas, about 7,574 likely undocumented male workers stopped working per surge in activity. This equated to six workers leaving for every ICE arrest, often due to fear of apprehension.

Consequently, around 1,200 U.S.-born male workers in similar education brackets and industries lost jobs, reflecting a ratio of one native-born job loss per six undocumented departures. Sectors such as construction and agriculture, where immigrant labor is prevalent, showed clear effects.

The study noted a 3 percent dip in employment rates for U.S.-born construction workers. Without immigrant counterparts handling physically demanding tasks, businesses scale back operations, reducing overall demand for labor.

“Heightened ICE activity is harming the labor market overall, and we find no evidence that it is benefiting U.S.-born workers. In construction, for instance, U.S.-born workers often fill roles dependent on immigrant-provided manual labor. When that foundation erodes, industries contract, leading to fewer jobs overall. A separate report from the Penn Wharton Budget Model last year projected that mass deportations could lower wages for high-skilled workers by up to 2.8 percent over 30 years. The current study reinforces this by showing no uptick in job opportunities or wages in affected sectors, contradicting narratives that deportations free up positions for native-born workers. Nearly half of construction firms reported project delays due to labor shortages last year, according to a survey by the Associated General Contractors of America. About 30 percent of those firms linked staffing issues to immigration enforcement.”

Public support for strict immigration measures remains high among certain groups, with recent Pew polling showing strong backing for border presence and entry controls. However, views have shifted among independents over the past 17 months amid the enforcement push.

The study authors emphasized that chilling effects from ICE activity extend beyond arrests, causing workers to avoid regular activities like going to work. They compared labor outcomes in high-enforcement versus stable areas to isolate these impacts.

“There is a common narrative out there that mass deportations will free up job opportunities for U.S.-born workers, but numerous studies, including ours, have shown that is false.”

Daily ICE apprehensions rose from around 300 to nearly 1,300 over the past year, according to the research. This surge has dismantled workforce structures in reliant industries, with no compensatory benefits observed for U.S.-born workers.