science
Kalshi Launches Prediction Markets on Drug Trials and FDA Approvals
Kalshi opened new markets on July 16 allowing bets on Phase 3 trial outcomes and full FDA drug approvals. The platform accepted more than $100,000 in wagers with trading volume at $128,401 by 3 p.m. EDT.
Jul 16, 3:04 PM·1m read2 sources
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Kalshi launched prediction markets on pharmaceutical clinical trial outcomes and FDA drug approvals on July 16 in partnership with AppliedXL. The markets permit bets on more than a dozen outcomes limited to Phase 3 trials by established biopharma companies and full FDA approval decisions. Trading volume in the medicine markets reached $128,401 by approximately 3 p.m.
EDT, and Kalshi accepted more than $100,000 in bets on the new markets by that date. Most available bets focus on late-stage trials by companies with market caps of at least $500 million. Specific markets include whether the FDA will approve Gilead Sciences' experimental cancer drug anito-cel by the end of 2026, whether AriBio's Alzheimer's drug will meet the goals of its late-stage clinical trial, and when Eli Lilly's weight-loss drug retatrutide will receive FDA approval.
One market asks whether the FDA will approve a cure for Type 1 diabetes before 2033, with 56 percent of bettors predicting no. Kalshi requires employment verification for traders and prohibits trading on material nonpublic information. Early-stage trials and conditional FDA approvals are excluded from the current markets.
