Kalshi Plans Prediction Contracts on Drug Trial Results and Airport Flight Cancellations

Kalshi announced it will offer prediction contracts on drug trial results and FDA regulatory decisions. The Guardian reported the expansion as a pilot program developed with the artificial intelligence firm AppliedXL. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said drug development ranks among the most information-constrained industries.

The company stated that listed contracts would generate continuously updated public probabilities based on available evidence rather than sponsor messaging. To address concerns over insider trading, Kalshi said it will require employment verification for participants. Contracts will be listed only after trial enrollment closes.

The platform also released a 44-page white paper on drug-development prediction markets that included a contribution from 23andMe founder Anne Wojcicki. Wojcicki wrote that most patients lack information on clinical trial options and that an open dataset on trial probabilities would prove empowering.

Kalshi separately filed notice with the CFTC on Tuesday for contracts on the percentage of flights cancelled at specific airports.

Those contracts will draw primary data from FlightAware and backup information from the U.S. Department of Transportation. The filing indicated the contracts would be listed after close of business on 14 July 2026, though Kalshi said the market remains under evaluation for hedging travel risk.

Kalshi reported $1 billion in trading volume on Super Bowl Sunday earlier in 2026 and averages more than 5 million monthly users. The company also announced a $2 million donation to the National Council on Problem Gambling.