finance
Kalshi Traders Place Lower Odds Than Consensus on June Jobs Above 100,000
Kalshi traders assign less than 60 percent probability that Thursday's nonfarm payrolls will exceed 100,000 jobs, below the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 118,000. May nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000.
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Kalshi traders assign less than a 60 percent probability that Thursday's Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payrolls report will show more than 100,000 jobs added, Cnbc reported. The Dow Jones consensus forecast stands at 118,000 jobs, down from 172,000 added in May. Traders on the platform place 42 percent odds that the figure will exceed 125,000 jobs.
The contract resolves after the Bureau of Labor Statistics verifies the numbers. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated last week that the U.S. economy can achieve 3 percent GDP growth this year.2 percent probability that GDP will rise between 2.6 percent and 3 percent.
On unemployment, Kalshi traders see a 71 percent chance the rate will exceed 4.3 percent. The current rate stands at 4.3 percent, matching the Dow Jones consensus. Wall Street consensus calls for average hourly earnings to rise 3.5 percent year-over-year, compared with 3.4 percent in May.
Month-over-month earnings growth is expected at 0.3 percent, in line with the prior reading.
