Kalshi Traders Raise Odds of Prolonged Hormuz Disruption to 66% Through 2027 as Iran and Israel Signal Ceasefire

Traders on the prediction market Kalshi now assign a 66% probability that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal before January 2027. Two weeks earlier the same market priced a 60% chance the strait would reopen before August; that probability has since fallen to 21%. The market defines normal traffic as a seven-day moving average above 60 ships.

The latest repricing followed attacks between Iran and Israel on Sunday, the first exchange since an April ceasefire. Iran fired missiles at northern Israel after accusing Israel of violating a truce through repeated strikes on Lebanon. Israel described its action as a large-scale strike on strategic defense systems.

Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated Monday that it had stopped strikes against Israel. Traders on Kalshi did not materially adjust their probabilities after the statement. President Donald Trump said last week at the Oval Office that the strait could remain closed through Labor Day, though he added he thought closure through that date was unlikely and that the situation would resolve fairly quickly.

On Monday he posted on Truth Social that both sides were seeking an immediate ceasefire and that final negotiations on peace were proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity. The post also stated the blockade would remain in place until a final deal is reached. Vessels were photographed anchored at the strait from Musandam, Oman, on May 29, 2026.

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