finance
Kalshi Traders Raise Odds U.S. Gas Prices Top $4 per Gallon by July 2026 to 90 Percent
Prediction market probabilities for U.S. gasoline above $4 per gallon by July 31 climbed sharply amid renewed U.S. strikes on Iran. Current national average stands at $3.89 per gallon.
Jul 15, 5:11 PM·1m read1 source
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Kalshi traders raised the odds that the U.S. national average gasoline price will exceed $4 per gallon by the end of July 2026 to 90 percent from 56 percent over the past two days, Cnbc reported. The same traders now assign a 93 percent probability to prices topping $4 and a 63 percent chance they will exceed $4.10, while assigning less than a 5 percent probability to a move above $4.50.
89 per gallon on Wednesday, up 3 cents from Tuesday, according to AAA data cited by Cnbc. The June average already surpassed $4, and the 2026 high of $4.56 occurred on May 21. The contract will settle using AAA figures.
The price movement follows the end of the U.S. ceasefire with Iran during the week of July 6-12 and new U.S. military action. U.S. Central Command launched strikes on Iran in the morning of July 15 and a second wave at 3 p.m.
ET the same day. The command stated the strikes target Iranian military capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for August delivery closed at $79.60 per barrel, up 26 cents or 0.3 percent.
Brent crude futures for September settled at $84.95 per barrel, also up 0.3 percent.
