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Lake Mead Projected to Drop 6.5 Feet by November While Federal Releases from Lake Powell Are Cut
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation projects Lake Mead will reach its lowest level since the 1930s this November. The reservoir stands at 27 percent capacity, with further declines expected through 2028. New Colorado River allocation rules take effect in 2027.
Jul 18, 10:47 AM·1m read1 source
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The Hill reported that Lake Mead is projected to drop to 1,035.86 feet in November, roughly 6.5 feet below its noon level of 1,042.52 feet on Friday. The nation's largest reservoir now holds 27 percent of capacity. The U.S.
Bureau of Reclamation's latest 24-month study places the lake at 1,009.69 feet by June 2028, a decline of nearly 33 feet from its full-pool elevation of 1,229 feet. Lake Powell, the second-largest reservoir, sits at 24 percent capacity and 3,524.03 feet, just below its 3,525-foot target.
The federal government has increased releases from Flaming Gorge Reservoir on the Utah-Wyoming border while reducing outflows from Lake Powell to protect Glen Canyon Dam's hydroelectric output.
Those lower releases will further reduce inflows to Lake Mead. Nevada's total consumptive use of Colorado River water is estimated at 198,001 acre-feet in 2026, well below its 287,000-acre-foot allocation under current shortage conditions. About 90 percent of Las Vegas valley water comes from Lake Mead and 10 percent from wells, according to the Southern Nevada Water Authority.
Officials there say recycling and lower outdoor use have kept demand manageable despite regional growth. Current shortage-based allocation rules expire at the end of the year. New federal rules governing Colorado River water shares among the seven basin states are scheduled to begin in 2027.
The Bureau of Reclamation will release its next 24-month study in mid-August, providing the projections that will set those allocations. Under the agency's "Probable Minimum" scenario, Lake Mead would fall below 1,000 feet by June 2028. Lake Powell is projected to reach 3,491.75 feet over the same period.
