Lake Powell Projected to Reach 3,491 Feet by March 2027; Federal Transfers Aim to Stay Above 3,500 Feet

A Bureau of Reclamation analysis projects Lake Powell elevation could drop to 3,491 feet by March 2027. That level sits one foot above the minimum power pool at Glen Canyon Dam, below which the dam would stop generating hydropower. The 186-mile reservoir spans Utah and Arizona and supplies electricity to roughly six million homes and businesses across seven states.

As of Thursday the water height stood at 3,524 feet. Last month summer levels reached their lowest point in recorded history, with Colorado River system storage at 36 percent of capacity. In April the Bureau of Reclamation stated that the lowest snowpack on record combined with record-breaking March heat had intensified drought conditions across the basin.

The agency said it would consider all available tools during the interim period to avoid Lake Powell elevation declining below 3,500 feet. Federal officials have begun moving water from Flaming Gorge Reservoir to Lake Powell and have scaled back releases downstream. In April Interior Secretary Doug Burgum met with governors from seven Western states.

“I am grateful for the Governors and their teams working diligently to find a solution to the complex challenges created by these unprecedented drought conditions which require immediate action,” Burgum said. Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, told The Washington Post that bureau forecasts are often too optimistic and the minimum power pool level could be reached sooner than March.

Brad Udall, a researcher at Colorado State University’s Colorado Water Center, told the outlet that the system is perilously close to very bad outcomes.