Middle East Oil Output to Rebound Sharply in 2027 After Historic 2025–2026 Disruptions

Middle East oil producers are projected to increase crude output by double-digit percentages in 2027 as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, according to a BMI report carried by Malaysia's New Straits Times. The forecast covers Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. 1 percent.

The country, OPEC's second-largest producer, was the first to cut output after traffic through the strait collapsed. The UAE, which left OPEC and is no longer bound by cartel quotas, is forecast to raise production 33 percent. 5 percent.

The Strait of Hormuz handles 20 percent of global oil and LNG supply. Traffic through the waterway fell about 90 percent after the strait was effectively closed, removing more than 10 million barrels per day from world markets. Data from Kpler show the world has now lost 1 billion barrels of crude and condensate supply.

Cumulative losses in the Middle East reached 961 million barrels as of May 22 and crossed the 1 billion barrel mark by the end of May. Outright production shut-ins have continued to rise, with an additional 100,000 barrels per day likely taken offline in the past week because of sustained pressure in Iraq and Saudi Arabia. OPEC's total oil production has fallen to 26-year lows.

BMI said a rebound is expected next year once the Strait of Hormuz crisis ends. Analysts noted that reactivating shut-in wells will likely take months because not all facilities can resume output immediately.