Morgan Stanley Analysis Shows AI Boosting Worker Productivity Without Job Losses

A Morgan Stanley Research analysis examined U.S. productivity data across industries based on their exposure to artificial intelligence. The study found that industries in the top quartile of AI exposure contributed 1.7 percentage points to the overall 2.4 percentage-point productivity growth over the four quarters through the end of 2025.

A year earlier, those industries had contributed 0.7 percentage points. Employment growth remained similar across high-, medium-, and low-AI exposure industries during this period. Output accelerated in high-AI industries while stagnating in others.

In low-AI industries, output slowed.

executive and AI strategist Daniel Miessler stated in a LinkedIn post that AI enables top performers to handle more work, reducing the need for lower-tier employees. Miessler wrote that companies are spending millions annually on employees in the bottom 75 percent and may no longer want to pay for such roles.

This dynamic suggests productivity increases may concentrate among a smaller group of workers using AI tools. The analysis indicates no broad job displacement yet, but internal reallocations could occur.

of AI Tools Technologist Shaun

Warman wrote in a blog post that current AI tools are subsidized, with users providing training data to developers. Warman noted that individual users consume $80 to $150 in compute costs monthly, while subscriptions cost $20. Warman predicted that this subsidy could end in three to five years due to advances in synthetic data, agentic self-play, and scaling limits on human feedback.

After that, access might shift to expensive enterprise contracts or direct operations by AI labs. Large enterprises could afford higher costs, while smaller firms, lower-margin industries, and public sector workers might face reduced access. The current productivity gains appear tied to this temporary phase of broad AI availability.

Fortune reported using generative AI as a research tool for this story, with an editor verifying the information.