National Weather Service Forecasts Below-Average 2026 Hurricane Season

The National Weather Service issued its seasonal outlook on Tuesday, forecasting eight to 14 named storms for the Atlantic hurricane season that begins Monday, June 1. The agency expects three to six hurricanes, of which one to three could reach major status with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.

A typical season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The season runs through November 30. Officials said an El Niño pattern expected to develop during the season would increase wind shear across the Atlantic basin and thereby reduce storm formation.

Forecasters noted that sea-surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic remain above average, which could allow any storms that do form to intensify quickly. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the National Weather Service, assigned a 55 percent probability to a below-normal season, a 35 percent chance of near-normal activity, and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.

Colorado State University researchers issued a separate forecast calling for 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. They cited cooler-than-average waters in the eastern tropical Atlantic as an additional suppressing factor.

"It just takes one," said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service. Officials urged residents to review evacuation routes and assemble emergency supplies before the season begins. The outlook does not predict specific landfall locations or dates. Those details depend on shorter-term weather patterns that develop closer to any given storm.