Oil Prices Rise Amid US-Iran Tensions in Strait of Hormuz as Ceasefire Nears End

“The oil market breaking point is here. Global onshore oil inventories are going to plummet, and the decline will be at a pace no one has ever seen before." — HFI Research, Sunday (Insider). Current global oil supply shortages range from 11 million to 13 million barrels per day, necessitating demand destruction comparable to COVID-19 lockdowns, according to HFI. US commercial oil stores may drop to around 400 million barrels, just above the operational minimum of 380 million.”

Street slid and stocks dipped in early Monday trading, while European equity futures fell 1.2%. Bitcoin traded at $74,335, down 1.6%, amid renewed war risks. Peace talks between the US and Iran are scheduled for a second round in Islamabad, though uncertainty persists.

China's Xi Jinping stated in a call to the Saudi crown prince that the Strait of Hormuz should be open. Senior Iranian politician Ebrahim Azizi told the BBC that Tehran will never cede control of the strait and will decide rights of passage. The UAE has opened talks with the US about a financial backstop if the conflict deepens, according to US officials.

Former hostage negotiator Roger Carstens warned that Iran could use detained Americans as a sweetener in nuclear talks.

Electric vehicle registrations in continental Europe surged 51% in March, with 224,000 new EVs sold across 15 countries, according to New AutoMotive and E-Mobility Europe. This represented 22% of total car sales in key markets. Norway led with 98.4% EV market share, registering 17,406 models.

Germany saw 70,427 registrations, boosted by a €3 billion incentive program offering up to €6,000 per vehicle for qualifying households.

“March's surge in electric car sales is one of Europe's biggest recent gains in energy security, in a month when oil dependence has become a real vulnerability." — Chris Heron, Secretary-General of E-Mobility Europe (GB News). The UK registered 86,120 new EVs, a 24.2% year-on-year increase, accounting for 22.4% of the market. Used EV sales in the US rose 20% in the first quarter. India saw an 87% jump in EV purchases year-on-year in March. Analysts attribute the growth to rising gasoline prices driven by the Iran conflict.”

Kpler said the US is "back to square one" in the Strait of Hormuz impasse. The April 22 deadline for a US-Iran deal approaches, with the ceasefire's fragility heightening risks. Pakistan is pushing to remain involved in peace efforts despite the first round yielding no agreement.