OpenAI Proposed 5% U.S. Government Stake in 2025

OpenAI proposed granting the U.S. government a 5% stake in the company during discussions with the Trump administration in 2025. Cnbc reported the proposal based on an unnamed source familiar with the matter who spoke last month.

Kalshi traders currently assign less than 30% probability that the government will take a stake in OpenAI or Anthropic this year. The prediction market contract resolves once verified by government statements, news outlets or official filings. President Donald Trump declined to address the OpenAI proposal directly when asked by CNBC last week.

He instead described the 10% stake the government took in Intel last summer after the company sought assistance. "Intel came in. They had a problem," Trump said. '" Traders on Kalshi assign well over 60% probability that the government will take a stake this year in Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum and GlobalFoundries.

In May the Commerce Department announced $2 billion in grants to nine quantum computing firms, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology said it would hold minority non-controlling stakes in each recipient. The same companies appeared on the Kalshi contract. Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum and GlobalFoundries were among the nine grant recipients.

The Wall Street Journal reported in May that the administration was considering equity deals with drone makers Performance Drone Works and Neros Technologies. Kalshi traders place just over 50% odds on a stake in Performance Drone Works and less than 40% on Neros Technologies this year.

Cnbc maintains a commercial relationship with Kalshi that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.