politics
Poll Shows Hong Slightly Ahead of Barnes in Wisconsin Democratic Primary
A July 2-4 poll by Wedgewood Polls and the Isthmus Political Report found Francesca Hong at 30 percent among likely Democratic primary voters for Wisconsin governor. Hong, Mandela Barnes and Sara Rodriguez each led Republican Tom Tiffany by narrow margins in hypothetical general election matchups. Earlier polls showed much higher undecided shares and closer or reversed general election results.
cnbc.comAudio version
Tap play to generate a narrated version.
Developing·Limited corroboration so far. This page will refresh as more sources emerge.
A poll conducted July 2-4 by Wedgewood Polls and the Isthmus Political Report showed Francesca Hong receiving 30 percent support among 413 likely Democratic primary voters for Wisconsin governor. Mandela Barnes followed at 28 percent and Sara Rodriguez at 19 percent, with 23 percent undecided.
The survey of 707 likely voters carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for the general election sample and 5.3 points for the primary sample.
In hypothetical general election matchups against Republican frontrunner Tom Tiffany, Hong led 47 percent to 44 percent. An earlier Marquette University Law School poll conducted March 11-18 among 393 registered voters placed Hong at 14 percent, Barnes at 11 percent and Rodriguez at 3 percent, with 65 percent undecided.
A TIPP Insights poll from March 13-19 of 1,168 likely voters showed Tiffany ahead of Hong 43 percent to 40 percent, while Rodriguez led Tiffany 44 percent to 41 percent and Barnes led 43 percent to 41 percent. As of Monday afternoon, prediction markets gave Hong a 48 percent chance of winning the Democratic primary on Kalshi and 44 percent on Polymarket.
On June 6 her Kalshi primary probability stood at 35 percent.
Democrats held a 73 percent chance on Kalshi and 80 percent on Polymarket of retaining the governorship. Wisconsin was decided by less than one percentage point in the 2024, 2020 and 2016 presidential elections. University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor Barry Burden said Hong’s style and message are working in the primary but remain less tested in a general election environment.
