Poll Shows Potential Republican Messaging on Tax Refunds Amid High Gas Prices

A poll conducted by J.L. Partners surveyed 1,000 registered voters on their tax refunds. Among those who received or expected a refund, 48% said the amount met expectations, 16% said it was less than expected, and 32% said it was more than anticipated.

The poll highlighted a potential positive aspect for Republicans in economic messaging ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Average tax refunds reached $3,462 this year, marking an 11% increase from previous levels, according to IRS data. Last week’s Tax Day brought record refunds, spurred in part by Trump’s “no tax on tips” policy, relief on overtime, and other tax breaks.

Gas prices have climbed above $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, amid ongoing conflict involving Iran.

The poll asked respondents if their tax refund was more or less than the additional amount they expected to spend on gas over the next year. Results showed 32% indicating the refund would be less than the extra gas costs, while another 32% said it would be more.

The remaining respondents were unsure or believed the amounts would balance out. This finding applied only to those expecting a refund. The cofounder of J.L. Partners stated that the picture is not positive for Republicans on the economy, especially since the Iran War.

Food price increases later in the year could wipe out any positive dividend from tax returns. But it picks up a nuance that we are not seeing in public data elsewhere, a sliver of potential for Republicans to turn the story around, and informative on where inflation goes next.

In other words, continued spending could have positive ramifications for the health of the economy. But inflation could tick up if producers increase prices and consumers keep spending. There is no need to sound the alarm yet that the economy is going to be hit by reduced consumer spending.