Poll Shows Shah Leading Maine Democratic Governor Primary

A poll conducted May 19-21 showed Nirav Shah receiving 32 percent support and Troy Jackson 24 percent among likely Democratic primary voters for Maine governor. Hannah Pingree, Shenna Bellows and Angus King III received 16, 15 and 9 percent respectively, with 4 percent undecided.

The survey of 500 likely voters carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. An earlier Pan Atlantic Research poll conducted May 8-18 placed Shah at 29 percent and Angus King III at 24 percent.

Senate candidate Graham Platner said during an appearance in Ellsworth on Thursday that he ranked Jackson first, followed by Bellows and Pingree. He stated that he and Jackson are aligned on labor and organizing issues. Jackson said in a statement that he is proud to have Platner's support. He added that Maine needs the working class to fight back against billionaires and corporations.

Maine uses ranked-choice voting in its gubernatorial primary. If no candidate reaches 50 percent, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and those votes are redistributed according to voters' next choices until a candidate secures a majority.

Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket currently give Shah the highest probability of winning the nomination. The Cook Political Report rates the general election as Likely Democratic, while Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean Democratic.