Polymarket Adds Prediction Markets on Private Companies With Nasdaq Data

Polymarket has introduced prediction markets that allow traders to take positions on private-company events without buying equity or obtaining voting rights. The new contracts cover milestones such as valuations, IPO timing, and secondary-market activity for companies including OpenAI and Anthropic.

Market will serve as the exclusive provider of resolution data for the contracts. The platform will also publish the underlying valuation data publicly and without requiring a subscription.

One listed market asks whether OpenAI will complete a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027. Another contract asks whether Anthropic will reach a valuation of at least $500 billion in 2026. A third market asks whether Anthropic will be valued higher than OpenAI at any point this year.

More than 1,600 private companies are valued at $1 billion or more, according to Nasdaq. Most individual investors cannot participate directly in these companies because access is typically limited to accredited investors and institutions.

Kalshi offers event contracts on private-company IPOs but resolves them using a combination of company filings, SEC data, and news reports. Kalshi does not currently list markets on private-company valuations.

The contracts give individual traders earlier exposure to private-market value creation. Institutions may gain an additional real-time signal on how traders are pricing private-company momentum. Secondary-market prices and funding rounds remain fragmented compared with public equities, and a liquid prediction market could provide clearer pricing information.

“Polymarket is moving deeper into private markets”