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Polymarket Analysis: Over 100,000 Accounts Lost $1,000+ Since 2025, Nearly Double the Profitable Ones
An analysis revealed widespread losses on Polymarket, one of the largest prediction markets, with over 100,000 accounts down at least $1,000 since early 2025. This number nearly doubles the accounts that gained that amount, while bots captured most profits. The findings, based on trade records, show aggregate losses of $131 million for other participants.
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Over 100,000 accounts on Polymarket lost at least $1,000 since the beginning of 2025, according to an analysis of every wallet active during that period. The number of such losing accounts is almost twice the number of accounts that made at least $1,000 in the same timeframe.
Polymarket stands as one of the largest prediction markets, where the data highlights significant financial disparities among users.
A majority of the profits on Polymarket went to a tiny slice of automated bots, based on trade records compiled by the data firm Dune. Everyone else on the platform, in aggregate, lost $131 million. The analysis underscores how automated systems dominated profitable trades, leaving most human participants at a net loss.
The analysis was reported by Bloomberg in an article published on April 28, 2026. It detailed how over 100,000 accounts faced losses of at least $1,000, nearly double the winners at that threshold. Bloomberg's reporting drew from the comprehensive wallet analysis and Dune's compilation of trade records.
@business also reported the analysis, highlighting the concentration of gains among bots and the aggregate $131 million loss for others. The findings come amid social media promotions of prediction markets as a side hustle for young Americans dealing with rent and student loans. In contrast, the data shows widespread losses, with significant losers outpacing winners by nearly two to one.
Trade records indicate that automated bots raked in the majority of profits, based on Dune's data compilation. This leaves the bulk of traders, including those touted as benefiting from the platform, facing financial disadvantages. The analysis covers activity from the start of 2025, revealing a pattern where bots excel while aggregate user losses mount to $131 million.
