George Santos bet on his own State of the Union attendance; Polymarket cuts paid ties amid CFTC probe into Kalshi

Polymarket is ending its paid relationship with George Santos after federal regulators opened an investigation into whether he placed bets on a rival platform against his own attendance at President Trump’s State of the Union address. Santos placed the wagers on Kalshi after publicly stating he would attend the Feb. 24 speech, according to a person familiar with the investigation.

He later attributed his absence to a delayed flight. Kalshi detected the trades as suspicious and referred them to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, which has opened a probe into possible insider trading, a second person familiar with the matter said. A Polymarket spokesperson said the company was terminating the contract because of this week’s revelations.

Santos had been working in an influencer capacity for Polymarket by February 2026, using his online platform to promote the service. Santos wrote on social media Wednesday that the allegation was “preposterous” and that his legal team was in touch with the Justice Department. ” In a March episode he said, “It is not straightforward.

It is not a crime to do prediction market. ” David Miller, the CFTC’s director of enforcement, said during a recent talk at New York Law School that insider-trading rules apply to prediction markets. “Insider trading in the prediction markets—where there is misappropriated information—is precisely the kind of serious violation that we are going after vigorously,” Miller said.

Santos was released from federal prison in October 2025 after President Trump granted him clemency in a fraud case. He had been sentenced to more than seven years after pleading guilty to wire fraud and identity theft. Santos won election to Congress in 2022, was later expelled, and served 84 days before the commutation.

The Trump administration has supported prediction-market operators and is suing states that have sought to regulate them. Donald Trump Jr. has invested in Polymarket through his venture capital firm and serves as a strategic advisor to Kalshi.

Last week, prosecutors charged a Google engineer who allegedly used the company’s 2025 “Year in Search” data before publication to place Polymarket wagers. A Polymarket spokesperson said the company had worked closely with the CFTC and federal prosecutors ahead of those charges.

Todd Phillips, director at Klaros Group and a former Georgia State University professor, said Santos’s alleged conduct appeared closer to market manipulation than classic insider trading.

“We didn’t have examples of people trading on contracts involving themselves,” Phillips said.