Polymarket Shows 40-42% Odds for Kevin Warsh's Fed Chair Confirmation by May 2026

Polymarket odds for Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve chair by May 15, 2026, have declined to around 40-42% ahead of his Senate confirmation hearing. This marks a new low in market expectations for Warsh, President Trump’s pick to lead the Fed. Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair expires in May 2026, and Polymarket odds for him leaving the Fed’s board by May 30 have fallen to 31%.

President Trump has publicly threatened to fire Powell if he does not step aside when his term ends next month. The Trump administration may also challenge Powell’s plan to remain as acting Fed chair if Warsh is not confirmed by mid-May. 5 billion renovation project.

Deputies from Jeanine Pirro’s office attempted to access the site as part of a probe tied to Powell but were turned away. The renovation has been under a months-long criminal investigation. Separately, the United States has broadened its naval blockade of Iran, authorizing the search and seizure of vessels linked to Tehran’s dark fleet worldwide.

Lebanon announced efforts to reach a ceasefire with Israel soon, with leaders Joseph Aoun and Benjamin Netanyahu scheduled for direct talks on April 16, 2026. Iran stated that a ceasefire in Lebanon is crucial for any negotiations with Washington. U.S.

and a report showing deaths from dog bites surged by more than 200% in one year. S. and China have reduced global investment interest, with investment intention toward China dropping from 53% to 24% over the past year.

“I will fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if he does not step aside when his term expires next month." — Donald Trump > "The current assessment on the health of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is that he remains alive, wounded, and disfigured." — U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth > "Efforts are underway to reach a ceasefire with Israel soon.”