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Polymarket Shows 43% Chance Clarity Act Passes in 2026 After Unverified Ethics Reports
Traders lifted the implied probability that the Clarity Act passes in 2026 to 43 percent on July 21. The increase followed unverified reports that President Trump accepted an ethics provision. Bitcoin rose near $66,300 while ether and XRP each gained about 4 percent.
Jul 21, 7:19 AM·1m read1 source
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Polymarket traders raised the implied probability that the Clarity Act would become law in 2026 to 43 percent on July 21. The figure marked an 11-point increase from the 32 percent level recorded three days earlier, the lowest since the market opened in January.
The move followed unverified reports that President Trump had agreed to an ethics provision that had stalled the bill, CoinDesk reported.
The provision concerns limits on how much top officials can profit from crypto holdings while in office. No bill text has been publicly released. Democrats have not seen the text, a source familiar with the matter told CoinDesk.
The White House and the offices of the senators involved had issued no comment by July 21. The ethics provision was discussed at a July 16 meeting that included President Trump, Republican Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, and White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt. The Senate has until early August to vote on the measure.
Bitcoin traded near $66,300, up approximately 3 percent in the prior 24 hours, CoinDesk reported. Ether and XRP each rose about 4 percent. Traders attributed the broader gains mainly to strength in AI and semiconductor stocks.
The Clarity Act would create the first comprehensive federal framework for digital assets and split oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
