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Polymarket Traders See 57 Percent Chance of U.S.-Iran Peace Deal by July 2026
Betting markets show declining odds for a permanent peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Traders on Polymarket currently assign a 57 percent probability to such a deal being reached by July 31, 2026.
May 28, 5:02 PM·1m read1 source
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Media reports from both Iran and the United States continue to present differing accounts of the status of negotiations aimed at ending the Middle East conflict. Traders on the prediction platform Polymarket have responded to the conflicting coverage by lowering the probability they assign to a permanent peace agreement. -Iran permanent peace deal will be reached by July 31, 2026.
The same market previously showed higher odds before the most recent round of contradictory statements from officials and state media in both countries.
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