Polymarket Traders See Over 60% Chance of U.S.-Brokered Iran-Israel Ceasefire by July
Betting markets show traders still assign more than 60% probability to a new peace agreement or ceasefire extension before the end of July, down roughly 14 percentage points after recent fighting.
nbcnews.comTraders on Polymarket continue to assign more than 60% probability that the United States will announce a new peace agreement or ceasefire extension between Iran and Israel by the end of July. The same contracts show the assessed likelihood has fallen about 14 percentage points since the latest round of fighting began.
The contracts remain active on the prediction platform, which allows users to buy and sell shares tied to specific geopolitical outcomes. No official statements from the United States government regarding an imminent announcement have been reported in the available coverage.
