Prediction markets draw young male users seeking fast returns

Prediction markets allow users to wager on yes-or-no questions priced between zero and one dollar, with correct contracts paying one dollar each. Users can trade on sports results, political statements, or other events. Thomas Christian Owens, a 29-year-old manufacturing engineer in Oklahoma City, opened a Kalshi account in January and deposited 500 dollars.

He said the move was a birthday gift to himself and that he hoped winnings would help support family members. After early gains, his balance fell below his deposit, reaching 1,700 dollars from an initial 2,500 dollars. Steven Zhang, a 20-year-old UCLA student, began trading on Polymarket in 2024 after seeing an ad about betting on words President Trump might say in a debate.

He now uses Kalshi for mention markets on NBA commentary and other uncertain outcomes, keeping his account at about 150 dollars.

User demographics and platform data An April Navigator Research survey found close to 40 percent of men ages 18 to 34 participate in prediction markets. Kalshi stated that three million of its four million active users are male and six in ten are between 18 and 34.

Scrutiny and risk profile Prediction markets have drawn regulatory attention after several alleged insider-trading cases involving male traders. These include a Google employee accused of profiting more than 1.2 million dollars on Polymarket and a U.S. special forces soldier charged with betting on the removal of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

Behavioral finance expert Michael Liersch said young men tend to express more confidence in financial decisions and risk-taking. Associate professor David Bieri noted that men may be less affected by the endowment effect, making them more willing to risk losing money.

A Wall Street Journal analysis found that more than 67 percent of profits on Polymarket went to 0.1 percent of accounts. Research by Citizens managing director Jordan Bender showed a median return of negative eight percent for prediction-market users.