Kalshi and Polymarket Plan Perpetual Futures Expansion

A U.S. soldier was arrested for allegedly using classified information to place a bet on a prediction market regarding the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The incident has raised concerns about national security threats posed by prediction markets in sensitive situations.

Lawmakers have expressed worries over the legal and ethical dangers of these platforms for months. The arrest spotlighted how betting markets could be exploited in high-stakes scenarios involving military operations. The soldier is accused of betting on a U.S. operation to capture Maduro, drawing renewed attention to prediction markets as a new form of gambling and potential avenue for cheating.

Polymarket are planning to introduce perpetual futures, known as perps, which are futures contracts without expiration dates offering up to 100x leverage. These products have seen explosive growth since President Trump returned to office and account for more than 70% of volume on centralized crypto exchanges, according to CoinGecko.

In 2025, perps trading volume reached a nominal $61.7 trillion, a 29% increase from 2024, per CryptoQuant data. Spot crypto trading volume hit $18.6 trillion in 2025, up 9% from the prior year. The move would bring prediction markets into competition with platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase, potentially linking crypto more closely to mainstream finance.

“The prior administration failed to create a pathway for these markets to exist onshore.”

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission stated early this year that it is working to bring true perpetual derivatives to the U.S., with appropriate safeguards. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig noted that the agency will use its tools to onshore these products for both centralized and decentralized markets.