Kalshi and Polymarket Plan Perpetual Futures Expansion

A U.S. soldier was arrested for allegedly using classified information to place a bet on a prediction market regarding the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The incident has raised concerns about national security threats posed by prediction markets in sensitive situations.

Lawmakers have expressed worries over the legal and ethical dangers of these platforms for months. The arrest spotlighted how betting markets could be exploited in high-stakes scenarios involving military operations. The soldier is accused of betting on a U.S. operation to capture Maduro, drawing renewed attention to prediction markets as a new form of gambling and potential avenue for cheating.

Polymarket are planning to introduce perpetual futures, known as perps, which are futures contracts without expiration dates offering up to 100x leverage. These products have seen explosive growth since President Trump returned to office and account for more than 70% of volume on centralized crypto exchanges, according to CoinGecko.

In 2025, perps trading volume reached a nominal $61.7 trillion, a 29% increase from 2024, per CryptoQuant data. Spot crypto trading volume hit $18.6 trillion in 2025, up 9% from the prior year. The move would bring prediction markets into competition with platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase, potentially linking crypto more closely to mainstream finance.

“The prior administration failed to create a pathway for these markets to exist onshore.”

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission stated early this year that it is working to bring true perpetual derivatives to the U.S., with appropriate safeguards. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig noted that the agency will use its tools to onshore these products for both centralized and decentralized markets.

Analysts view the expansion as a natural extension for Kalshi and Polymarket's customers, but not an immediate threat to established exchanges. Owen Lau, an analyst at Clear Street, said it would be hard for users to switch from platforms like Coinbase or Binance.

Dan Dolev of Mizuho described the move as defensive, anticipating that Robinhood might develop similar products independently. Robinhood launched its Prediction Markets hub last year in partnership with Kalshi, which saw 11 billion contracts traded by over 1 million customers in 2025.

Coinbase initiated a similar partnership with Kalshi in January. com, Coinbase, and Robinhood are members of the Coalition for Prediction Markets lobby group.

Introducing perps could increase volatility in assets due to high leverage and auto-deleveraging systems that liquidate positions, potentially causing large price drawdowns. Regulators have historically been uncomfortable with these contracts in the U.S., contributing to the dominance of offshore exchanges like Binance and the defunct FTX.

Prediction markets have faced scrutiny after incidents of insider information exploitation and data manipulation, such as betting on nonpublic events or tampering with inputs like weather sensors. Combining these with leveraged crypto products may prompt further regulatory examination.

If successful, these contracts could expand beyond crypto to other asset classes, reshaping trading on real-world events. Analysts downplay risks to incumbents but note the massive overlap in user bases between prediction and crypto markets.

“I don't see this as an immediate threat. This is a natural product extension for Polymarket and Kalshi's existing customers.”