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Prediction Markets on Los Angeles Wildfires and Paris Heat Drew Bets and Regulatory Scrutiny
Cnn reported that platforms including Polymarket accepted wagers on acres burned and containment dates during the January 2025 Los Angeles fires. The Eaton fire killed 19 people and destroyed Kaitlyn Trudeau’s grandfather’s home. Experts and officials raised concerns about financial incentives and data integrity.
Jul 17, 5:29 AM·1m read1 source
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The Eaton fire swept through Altadena last year, killing 19 people and destroying thousands of buildings, including the home of Kaitlyn Trudeau’s grandfather. In January 2025, as the Los Angeles wildfires burned, traders placed bets on Polymarket about acres consumed, locations reached, and containment dates.
Trudeau, a California-based climate scientist at the non-profit Climate Central, said the activity created a financial incentive to start fires.
“It’s not just easy to start a fire — now there’s potentially a financial incentive,” she told Cnn. She added that the markets risk encouraging people to view disasters as video games rather than real events. A Polymarket spokesperson said users seek information on the platform during disasters.
The site lets participants buy shares in an outcome for between $0 and $1, with correct shares paying $1. Another platform, WyldFyre, focuses on California fires. Ed Nordskog, a retired Los Angeles County Sheriff’s arson investigator, noted a pattern linking obsessive gambling and fire setting.
“A surprising number of (arsonists) set their fires near casinos that they frequent on a daily basis,” he said. On April 6 and April 15, 2025, evening temperatures at Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris spiked several degrees, according to on-site sensors. The readings triggered payouts on Polymarket heat bets.
Météo-France filed a police complaint for alteration of an automated data processing system. In March 2025, California Governor Gavin Newsom strengthened a ban on insider trading by state officials on prediction-market platforms. Representatives from Utah and California introduced bipartisan legislation to prohibit trades on terrorism, assassination, war, and gaming.
