Prediction Markets Price US Measles Cases for 2026 at Nearly $9 Million in Volume

U.S. on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket since January 2026. The wagers come as measles cases and outbreaks have been rising across the country.

Prediction markets involve buying and selling shares on yes or no questions about future events, with share prices reflecting the percentage of yes bets. If a predicted event occurs, successful bettors receive $1 per share.

U.S. Federal elections. In 2003, Philip Polgreen, an infectious disease researcher at the University of Iowa, asked the economists to incorporate diseases into the prediction market.

A trader using the pseudonym Magamyman won $553,000 on Polymarket by correctly predicting when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be removed from power. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on 28 February 2026. U.S. By the end of 2025. S. by the end of 2025. Spencer J. " He noted that epidemiologists use multiple data streams including vaccination rates, genomic data and climate data to predict diseases.

Spencer J. Fox said everyone is looking for an edge for forecasting infectious diseases and is constantly on the lookout for new data streams. " Spencer J. Fox said prediction markets do not incorporate as many distinct forecasts as scientific models or offer as much granularity.

" @NewScientist reported that the measles betting markets may turn out to be a promising source of data for researchers modelling the spread of the disease despite the murky ethics of such wagers.