finance
Prediction Markets See Over $1 Billion in War-Related Bets This Year
More than $1 billion has been wagered on military outcomes on prediction markets this year. Analytics firm Bubblemaps identified nine linked accounts that won 98 percent of over 80 bets on U.S. military actions involving Iran.
May 17, 7:17 PM·1m read1 source
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U.S. military actions in the conflict with Iran, according to analysis by the data analytics firm Bubblemaps. U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran's supreme leader, and the announcement of a ceasefire. Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO Nicolas Vaiman said the pattern could not be explained by luck alone.
Prediction markets allow users to wager on future events and have grown in popularity this year. U.S. Army soldier was indicted last month for using classified information to place bets, 60 Minutes examined how nonpublic information may be used on these platforms.
Rob Schwartz, a partner at the law firm Morgan Lewis and former Commodity Futures Trading Commission official, said the activity represents a new form of insider trading. Polymarket stated that it refers suspicious activity to law enforcement and does not welcome insider trading.
March 23, more than $800 million was staked on oil futures shortly before President Trump posted that talks with Iran had been productive. Oil prices then fell more than 10 percent. Former commodities trader David Kovel said the timing raises suspicions of insider trading.
Federal investigators are examining the oil market trades, though no charges have been filed. Oversight of prediction markets falls to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which is currently led by Michael Selig.
