Prediction Markets See Over $1 Billion in War-Related Bets This Year
More than $1 billion has been wagered on military outcomes on prediction markets this year. Analytics firm Bubblemaps identified nine linked accounts that won 98 percent of over 80 bets on U.S. military actions involving Iran.
thehindubusinessline.comU.S. military actions in the conflict with Iran, according to analysis by the data analytics firm Bubblemaps. U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran's supreme leader, and the announcement of a ceasefire. Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO Nicolas Vaiman said the pattern could not be explained by luck alone.
Prediction markets allow users to wager on future events and have grown in popularity this year. U.S. Army soldier was indicted last month for using classified information to place bets, 60 Minutes examined how nonpublic information may be used on these platforms.
Rob Schwartz, a partner at the law firm Morgan Lewis and former Commodity Futures Trading Commission official, said the activity represents a new form of insider trading. Polymarket stated that it refers suspicious activity to law enforcement and does not welcome insider trading.
March 23, more than $800 million was staked on oil futures shortly before President Trump posted that talks with Iran had been productive. Oil prices then fell more than 10 percent. Former commodities trader David Kovel said the timing raises suspicions of insider trading.
Federal investigators are examining the oil market trades, though no charges have been filed. Oversight of prediction markets falls to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which is currently led by Michael Selig.
Key Facts
Story Timeline
3 events- March 23
More than $800 million staked on oil futures before Trump post on Iran talks.
1 sourceCbs News - Last month
U.S. Army soldier indicted for using classified information to place bets.
1 sourceCbs News - This year
Nine linked accounts won 98 percent of bets on U.S. military actions in Iran.
1 sourceCbs News
Potential Impact
- 01
Federal investigators continue examining oil futures trades made on March 23.
- 02
Polymarket may increase referrals of suspicious accounts to law enforcement.
- 03
The CFTC may expand use of artificial intelligence for enforcement actions.
Transparency Panel
Related Stories
ibtimes.comSEC Chair Paul Atkins Says Congress Will Pass Crypto Legislation
SEC Chair Paul Atkins stated he is confident Congress will pass crypto market structure legislation. He added that President Trump will sign the bill into law.
asiaone.comIran Says Strait of Hormuz Management Belongs to Iran and Oman
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that control of the Strait of Hormuz must be decided solely by Iran and Oman. The spokesperson also said no agreement has been reached with the United States and that current focus remains on ending the war.
cnbc.comFed Official Highlights Regulatory Barriers to AI Productivity Gains
A Federal Reserve official stated that productivity growth remains key to economic expansion and that regulatory hurdles are the main obstacle to sustained gains from artificial intelligence.