Republicans Hold Narrow House Majority Ahead of Midterms

Republicans currently hold a six-seat majority in the House of Representatives ahead of the midterm elections. One member from California left the party but continues to caucus with Republicans.

The Supreme Court overturned race-based approaches to drawing congressional districts that previously protected some Democratic incumbents. The court also rejected an effort to overturn a Virginia Supreme Court decision affecting four Republican seats in that state. When mid-decade redistricting is complete, Republicans could gain up to 10 House seats from new district maps.

House elections showed large swings between parties for more than two decades, including in 1994, 2006, 2010, and 2018. The pattern changed in 2022 when Republicans did not gain as many seats as expected despite low approval ratings for the prior president. Similar stability appeared in the 2020 and 2024 elections, with only small changes in House seat totals.

Republican voters have shown support for the party's direction in recent primaries. Five state senators in one state lost their primaries after opposing a redistricting plan. The current narrow majority means even small shifts could determine control of the House after the midterms.