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South Korea 2026 GDP Growth Forecasts Average 3 Percent After Upward Revisions
Eight major global investment banks lifted their average projection for South Korea's 2026 GDP growth to 3.0 percent by the end of June. The revision follows record June exports led by semiconductor shipments tied to AI demand.
Jul 6, 7:53 PM·1m read3 sources
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Major global investment banks raised their average forecast for South Korea's 2026 GDP growth to 3.0 percent at the end of June, the first time the figure reached that level. The average stood 0.2 percentage points above the May reading, according to data compiled by the Korea Center for International Finance from eight banks.
JP Morgan lifted its June projection to 3.7 percent, up 0.7 points from May.
Citi raised its estimate to 3.5 percent from 3.0 percent. Bank of America projected 3.1 percent growth, while HSBC and UBS each forecast 2.8 percent. Barclays and Goldman Sachs each projected 2.7 percent, and Nomura forecast 2.4 percent.
The upward revisions track record exports in June. Total shipments reached $102.25 billion, up 70.9 percent from a year earlier, while semiconductor exports nearly tripled to $44.82 billion amid global demand for AI-related chips. The Bank of Korea reported that real GDP expanded 1.8 percent in the first quarter, 0.1 percentage point above its preliminary estimate.
The central bank currently projects 2.6 percent growth for 2026 and is expected to raise that forecast in August.
