Spanish Soccer Club Hedged Relegation Risk With Multimillion-Dollar Kalshi Bet, Then Won Final Game to Stay in La Liga

The owners of a top-tier Spanish soccer team placed a multimillion-dollar bet against the team on Kalshi ahead of the final game of the season. The club faced relegation from La Liga, which would have meant millions in lost ticket and broadcast revenue. The team won its final game 1-0 and remained in the top tier of La Liga.

Susquehanna took the other side of the Kalshi trade and earned more than $1 million, according to people familiar with the matter. Game Point Capital helped the Spanish soccer team orchestrate the Kalshi trade. Game Point Capital helps professional and college teams protect themselves financially against costs associated with too much winning or too much losing, according to its CEO Will Hall.

“We want to see how prediction markets would handle this and it was a good test case — a large and binary outcome,” Hall said in an interview with Semafor. Game Point Capital went to Greenlight Commodities to execute the trade. Greenlight Commodities serves as a middleman for institutions looking to place bets on prediction markets.

Greenlight Commodities executed the first-ever block trade on Kalshi in April, a six-figure bet that an auction of carbon allowances in California would settle above a specific price. Susquehanna is the first quant trading firm to establish a dedicated prediction-markets trading desk. The article was published on Jun 4, 2026.