Strait of Hormuz traffic odds rise after Trump announces Iran deal
Prediction market odds that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before August reached 58 percent after President Trump announced a memorandum of understanding with Iran. The agreement includes removal of the U.S. naval blockade and reopening of the strait after a deal is signed Friday.
CnbcThe agreement includes removal of the U.S. naval blockade and reopening of the strait after a deal is signed Friday.
Market reaction and statements Other prediction markets showed a 75 percent probability that traffic will return to normal before the end of this year. The last time odds for an August reopening reached similar levels was in late May. Iranian state news agency Mehr reported the strait would reopen under Iranian arrangements.
Qatar asked for further clarity on outstanding issues including freedom of navigation.
Remaining questions Israel, which collaborated with the United States on strikes against Iran on Feb. 28, was excluded from the deal. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said the end to the war included Lebanon. Israel stated its defense force will continue operations in security zones in Lebanon, Gaza and Syria.
Vice President J.D. Vance told CNBC's Squawk Box the deal will open the strait without tolls for the long term and that more traffic flow has already been observed. Iran and the United States are scheduled to sign the peace deal in Geneva on Friday.
