Study Estimates 30 Percent of Polymarket Volume From U.S. Traders

Approximately 30 percent of Polymarket trading volume originates from the United States, according to a study by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane. S. 7 billion through the offshore platform from May 2025 through April 2026.

-based trades on offshore prediction market platforms during that period. U.S. elections and sporting events. U.S. traders accounted for roughly half of activity on Polymarket’s sports vertical, the study found.

“It’s been known that there are individuals on there, but what hasn’t been known is the extent, whether it’s one or 10 or an actually appreciable fraction,” Crane said. The Coalition for Prediction Markets commissioned and funded the study. com are members of the group.

Polymarket is not a member. U.S. since 2022. -licensed prediction market app called Polymarket US. 6 billion in trading volume in April 2026, according to Pew Research.

The primary crypto platform recorded approximately $9 billion in trading volume in the same month. Polymarket’s terms of service prohibit the use of VPNs. U.S. Participation because direct geographic data is unavailable. U.S. special forces soldier with using classified information to generate approximately $400,000 in profits on Polymarket.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated in May 2026 that the agency is willing to use extraterritorial jurisdiction against bad actors on offshore prediction markets on a case-by-case basis. -based trading volume on Polymarket could reach $133 billion by 2030.

Charles Martineau, an associate professor of finance at University of Toronto Scarborough, said the methodology provides a reasonable estimate despite its limitations.