Study Finds U.S. Forest Service Fuel Treatments Prevent $3.73 in Wildfire Damages per Dollar Spent

New research shows that fuel treatments conducted by the U.S. Forest Service on public lands reduced wildfire damages. According to a study published in the journal Science, every dollar spent by the agency on tactics such as clearing underbrush, thinning trees and using prescribed burns avoided $3.73 in combined costs from wildfire smoke, property damage and carbon dioxide emissions.

The analysis examined high-resolution data from 285 wildfires that burned through treated areas across 11 Western states between 2017 and 2023. On average the treatments decreased the total area burned by 36 percent and reduced land burned at moderate to high severity by 26 percent.

Researchers then modeled the economic value of those reductions. The study estimated that the treatments prevented $1.39 billion in health and workforce productivity losses tied to wildfire smoke, $895 million in structural damage and $503 million in carbon dioxide emissions.

Larger treatments covering more than 2,400 acres produced the highest returns. Frederik Strabo, the lead author and an economist at the University of California, Davis, said the economic benefits of fuel treatments have been understudied. “A lot of people have suggested that there could be potential economic benefits,” Strabo said.

Calkin, who was not involved in the study, said many benefits are non-market, including ecological improvements and public recreation access. He added that the most costly fires often start near communities, where treatments on federal lands may have limited effect.

“The best way to protect a structure is at the structure itself,” Calkin said. Strabo responded that an unpublished portion of the analysis showed fires interacting with fuel treatments accounted for a disproportionately large share of structure losses and suppression costs.

He cited the 2021 Caldor Fire near Lake Tahoe as an example where treatments limited further damage.

and Policy Context

Mark Kreider, a Forest Service researcher, noted that the study did not account for smoke and carbon dioxide emissions produced by the prescribed burns themselves. Because wildfire is unpredictable, more land must be treated than ultimately burns. Kreider said ongoing work is examining how to factor those emissions into future analyses.

The federal government’s approach to forest management has shifted since President Donald Trump returned to office. According to the Forest Service, in 2025 the agency reduced vegetation on about 1 million fewer acres than in 2024. The Trump administration has placed greater emphasis on fighting wildfires than preventing them.

Heather Stricker, a climate and lands analyst with the Sierra Club, said the study provides evidence that a policy of full suppression in Western wildfire situations is misguided. Strabo said scaling up fuel treatments could deliver additional economic and ecological benefits.

“It’s a critically underfunded public good,” he said.