Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf Flow Rate Triples Since 2020 Amid Ongoing Changes and Uncertainty
Satellite data show the floating ice shelf in front of Thwaites glacier flowing at more than 2,000 metres per year. Researchers say the shelf has already lost most of its buttressing effect on the glacier.
New ScientistThe flow rate of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf tripled between January 2020 and January 2026, reaching just over 2,000 metres per year, according to measurements reported by Christian Wild at the University of Innsbruck. The shelf, which covers about 1,500 square kilometres and is 350 metres thick, is fracturing around its pinning point and along the grounding line.
New rifts have opened in the last few years as the ice accelerated, said Ted Scambos of the University of Colorado at Boulder.
Karen Alley of the University of Manitoba said the changes are visible in satellite images taken since her 2019-2020 field season. “There are huge gashes where there used to be none,” she said. Wild added that flow has increased further in the past five months.
“It’s in free fall now,” he said. The Araon, a South Korean ice-breaker, navigated sea ice near the glacier in January 2026 while researchers collected supporting observations. Between January 2020 and January 2026 the flow of glacier ice previously held back by the shelf rose by about 33 per cent, Wild and colleagues found in a study scheduled for publication.
Rob Larter of the British Antarctic Survey said the timing of final break-off remains uncertain. “Predicting ice shelf break-off has similarities to trying to predict earthquakes,” he said. ” Larter noted that his team has prepared an “obituary” press release in case the shelf collapses suddenly.
Thwaites glacier is roughly the size of Britain and currently accounts for 4 per cent of global sea-level rise. 3 metres. A separate study published in January by Daniel Goldberg of the University of Edinburgh estimated that by 2067 the glacier could lose 190 gigatonnes of ice per year—three times the present rate and equal to all current ice loss from Antarctica.
Larter called the 2067 projection “a fairly alarming” figure if confirmed. Alley said the pattern fits a longer trend. “Since the 1990s, we’ve been watching ice shelves destabilise,” she said. The ice shelf of the neighbouring Pine Island glacier is also disintegrating.
@NewScientist reported the observations and statements. The article was amended on 27 May 2026 to correct the stated size of the projected annual increase in ice loss.
