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U.S. weather agency confirms El Nino arrival, sees 63 percent chance of very strong event
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday that El Nino conditions have developed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Scientists project a 63 percent chance the event reaches very strong levels by November-January.
Jun 11, 3:32 PM·1m read1 source
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The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday that El Nino conditions have developed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The natural climate pattern warms surface waters and alters global wind and rainfall patterns.
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Scientists at the agency said the current event could intensify through the end of the year. They assigned a 63 percent chance that it reaches very strong strength during the November-January period, which would place it among the largest events since 1950.
Expected regional effects Major El Nino episodes have historically produced drought in parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia. They have also shifted monsoon rainfall in India and changed precipitation patterns across the tropics. The same advisory noted that the event arrives while global temperatures are already elevated from long-term warming trends.
Officials said this combination could increase the frequency or intensity of certain weather extremes. "El Nino is here, and it could be one for the history books," said meteorologist Haley Thiem in an explainer video from the agency.
