UK to Proscribe Iran's IRGC

IRGC personnel are monitoring developments in the war with the United States and Israel, as Pakistan continues mediation efforts for a peace deal this weekend. The IRGC originated as a force during the 1980s war with Iraq and has grown to control up to one third of Iran's economy, including military units involved in domestic security.

Its economic influence has increased through sanctions circumvention, developing an alternate banking sector after Iran's 2012 suspension from the Swift system, and reportedly earning $45 billion from energy sanctions evasion last year. The IRGC's holdings include a major construction firm, television production, and chemical works.

Iran's demands for sanctions relief in diplomatic forums could impact the IRGC's long-term power.

The IRGC relies on its million-strong Basij reserve militia for street control, following suppression of protests in January. The IRGC's network includes regular forces, militias, business employees, and their families, totaling millions of Iranians. This has enabled organization of demonstrations during the war.

Friday, Sir Keir Starmer announced moves to proscribe the IRGC in Britain, in response to what security agencies describe as an arson campaign against Jewish community organizations directed by the IRGC. The proscription would make membership, funding, or support for the IRGC a criminal offense.

This follows a debate in the UK government. Three years ago, the then-Conservative government expanded sanctions on 30 IRGC-associated individuals instead of proscription. In 2022, calls for a ban increased after Iran International TV, a UK-based broadcaster, relocated to the United States due to reported assassination plots against its reporters by the IRGC.

The Metropolitan Police reported foiling more than a dozen plots to kidnap or kill UK-based journalists perceived as enemies of Iran. Previous reluctance stemmed from the Terrorism Act's focus on non-state entities, while the IRGC functions as part of the Iranian state, and concerns about potential closure of Britain's mission in Iran.

The Security Service now views the IRGC as a threat to Iranian exiles in the UK, with recent attacks reportedly involving online recruitment of British citizens. An attack on the Kenton United Synagogue in Harrow last weekend was claimed by Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia, described as an Iranian-linked group.

A Home Office spokesman said the government is introducing proscription-like powers to address malign state activity, with more actions expected soon.

IRGC units have continued ballistic missile and drone attacks despite opposing air power. The Iranian air force's attempt to bomb Qatar early in the war resulted in two Su-24 bombers being shot down. With the surface fleet largely destroyed, IRGC speedboats and drones have been used in the Strait of Hormuz.

A U.S. official stated on Friday that the IRGC has been reduced to pirates with a flag, noting their real navy is at the bottom of the Arabian Gulf. Even if the IRGC surrenders control over Hormuz, it would claim victory for demonstrating it could disrupt the Western economy and could do so again if pressured.

If sanctions persist, the IRGC's position may strengthen. The war's end could involve compromises, such as on nuclear issues.