US and Iran Enter Two-Week Ceasefire Amid Strait of Hormuz Restrictions and Escalation Warnings

The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on an unspecified date, following a five-week war that resulted in thousands of deaths.

Core disputes remain unresolved, with each side adhering to competing demands for a deal. US President Donald Trump stated that US military assets, including ships, aircraft, and personnel with additional ammunition, will remain in the Middle East until a lasting peace agreement is reached. Trump expressed confidence in achieving a deal but warned of escalation if it fails.

He claimed Iran agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire excludes Lebanon, according to the United States and Israel, though Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that a halt in hostilities there is an essential condition.

“If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the 'Shootin’ Starts,' bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.”

oil or natural gas tankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz in the 24 hours since the ceasefire began, with only four bulk cargo vessels passing on the previous Wednesday, the lowest number recorded. Iran asserts control over the strait, a conduit for one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, and requires vessels to coordinate passage with its Revolutionary Guards navy.

Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization stated that transit must be done in coordination with the Revolutionary Guards. Iran demands tolls for safe passage, with reports specifying up to $2 million per ship payable in cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin, stablecoins like Tether's USDT, or USD1.

Vessels must email Iranian authorities prior to passage. An oil tanker attempting to pass through the strait was returned to Gulf waters, according to Iran's SNN news agency. Iran's deputy foreign minister said oil tankers and other vessels must liaise with the Iranian military for safe transit.

Traffic through the strait is unlikely to return to normal by May 15. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company reported that around 230 ships loaded with oil are ready to sail but noted the strait is not open.

conducted airstrikes in Lebanon on Wednesday, killing more than 250 people, the largest coordinated strike of the war. The Iran-backed Hezbollah fired rockets at the kibbutz of Manara early Thursday, citing Israeli ceasefire violations and warning of further actions until a halt in aggression.

Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated that three clauses of the 10-point ceasefire plan have been violated and that negotiations are unreasonable amid ongoing hostilities. Peace talks between the United States and Iran are scheduled to begin Saturday in Pakistan, with Iran's delegation arriving in Islamabad on Thursday night.

Pakistan's foreign ministry condemned the Israeli operations, stating they undermine international efforts for peace. French President Emmanuel Macron said Lebanon must be fully covered by the ceasefire. Oil prices increased Thursday amid concerns over the truce's fragility and risks to Middle East supplies.

Brent crude futures rose 2.07 percent to $96.71 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude increased 2.75 percent to $97.01 per barrel. Oil executives are lobbying the White House against allowing Iran's tolls, arguing they violate international law and create legal liabilities.