USDA projects biofuel demand to sustain U.S. farm output through 2050

A study by S&P Global Energy projects that sustained biofuel demand would allow U.S. corn yields to increase roughly 1.6 percent per year through 2050, enabling nearly 50 percent more production on existing land. The same analysis states that global biofuel output could triple while food and feed supplies rise 45 percent above baseline scenarios.

U.S. production would supply a larger share of the 940-billion-gallon global liquid fuel market.

Over the past 20 years, biofuel demand has supported farm incomes and kept agricultural investment strong, the study said. Expanded markets would accelerate adoption of advanced seeds, precision agriculture, and regenerative practices. Ethanol typically costs less than gasoline, which lowers fuel expenses for households and businesses, according to the report.

Bio-based diesel provides an additional outlet for soybean growers.

The House approved year-round E15 sales last month. Lawmakers also backed 2026-2027 Renewable Fuel Standard volumes expected to generate over $10 billion for rural economies and create more than 100,000 jobs in agriculture and manufacturing. Those volumes would cut U.S. dependence on foreign oil by about 300,000 barrels per day over the two-year period.

Without new demand, the study warns that supply could exceed needs, reducing investment and slowing productivity growth on U.S. cropland.