Weather agencies declare El Niño has begun with 63 percent chance of super event

Global weather agencies have declared that El Niño has begun after sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific remained more than 0.5°C above normal for the past month. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Japan Meteorological Agency both issued declarations. Climate models project temperatures will stay elevated for at least the next six months.

Temperature and weather projections NOAA stated there is a 63 percent chance this El Niño will become a very strong or super event, defined as sea surface temperatures reaching 2°C above average. One model projects temperatures could reach 3°C above normal, exceeding the 2.5°C record set in 1982-83.

Temperatures are expected to peak by the end of the year and continue into 2027. The added heat will combine with existing global warming of 1.36°C.

Regional effects The pattern is expected to increase the likelihood of heavy rainfall in southern California and reduced rainfall in the southern United States this summer. South-East Asia and south-east Africa face higher chances of heat and drought. The United Kingdom could see colder winters or warmer, wetter conditions, though other climate factors make outcomes less certain there.

Food supply considerations Lower rice yields in India could prompt export limits, raising prices in other countries. Officials at the University of Maryland noted that monsoon deficits may reduce production of rice and other commodities.