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Aluminum Prices Reach $3,615.90 per Ton Amid Middle East Conflict-Related Supply Disruptions

The ongoing Middle East conflict has disrupted aluminum production, leading to a major supply shock described as the largest in base metals since 2000. Prices rallied to multi-year highs amid shortages, with Mercuria projecting a 2 million ton deficit by year's end. Strikes targeted key facilities in the region, partially shutting down operations.

Benzinga
1 source·Apr 22, 11:40 AM(14 days ago)·1m read
Aluminum Prices Reach $3,615.90 per Ton Amid Middle East Conflict-Related Supply Disruptionszerohedge.com
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Aluminum prices rallied to multi-year highs on April 22, 2026, amid supply shortages triggered by the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has partially shut down major producers in the region. At 6:51 am ET on the London Metal Exchange, aluminum was trading 2.36% higher at $3,615.90 per ton, Benzinga reported.

The ongoing Middle East conflict has evolved into one of the most severe recent energy shocks, according to the International Energy Agency, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank. The crisis has had polarizing effects, with energy and aluminum markets facing immediate supply shortages.

The result is the rally to multi-year highs that prompted analysts and investors to revise their price targets.

Missile and drone strikes targeted major aluminum producers, including Emirates Global Aluminum and Aluminum Bahrain, known as Alba, leading to partial shutdowns of operations. Strikes hit Aluminum Bahrain's facility, the world's largest single-site smelter at 1.6 million metric tons of annual capacity, and Emirates Global Aluminum's Al Taweelah site.

' This capacity represents nearly 9% of the estimated global supply for 2026, Mercuria data shows. Middle East aluminum is hard to replace, with China capped on output and limited spare capacity in the U.S. and Europe, Mercuria stated. Mercuria projects a roughly 2 million ton deficit in the aluminum market by the end of 2026.

Mercuria projects a roughly 2 million ton deficit by year-end, but notes the estimate could be conservative if improved alumina flows through the Strait of Hormuz allow some smelters to restart production this quarter.

Some of the ETFs to focus on are Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (NYSE: DBB), Global X Commodity Strategy ETF (BATS: COMD) and iShares US Basic Materials ETF (NYSE: IYM). DBB Invesco DB Base Metals Fund $25.10 1.29%. COMD Global X Commodity Strategy ETF $27.29 -0.90%. IYM iShares U.S. Basic Materials ETF $184.50 0.72%.

Key Facts

Supply Shock Scale
The aluminum market faces the largest single supply shock in base metals since 2000, as stated by Nick Snowdon of Mercuria.
Production Disruption
Strikes by the IRGC hit Aluminum Bahrain's 1.6 million metric ton facility and Emirates Global Aluminum's Al Taweelah site, causing significant damage and parti
Market Data
Aluminum prices reached $3,615.90 per ton, up 2.36%, with Middle East capacity at 7 million metric tons representing 9% of global 2026 supply.
Deficit Projection
Mercuria estimates a 2 million ton aluminum market deficit by end of 2026, potentially conservative if Strait of Hormuz flows improve.
ETF Movements
DBB up 1.29% at $25.10, COMD down 0.90% at $27.29, IYM up 0.72% at $184.50 on April 22, 2026.

Story Timeline

6 events
  1. 2026-04-22 06:51 ET

    Aluminum trading 2.36% higher at $3,615.90 per ton on the London Metal Exchange.

    1 sourceBenzinga
  2. 2026-04-22

    Invesco DB Base Metals Fund trading at $25.10, up 1.29%; Global X Commodity Strategy ETF at $27.29, down 0.90%; iShares U.S. Basic Materials ETF at $184.50, up 0.72%.

    1 sourceBenzinga
  3. Tuesday (prior to 2026-04-22)

    Nick Snowdon spoke to Reuters at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne.

    1 sourceBenzinga
  4. Recent (ongoing)

    Missile and drone strikes targeted major aluminum producers in the Middle East, partially shutting down operations at Emirates Global Aluminum and Aluminum Bahrain.

    1 sourceUnattributed via Benzinga
  5. Ongoing

    Middle East conflict evolves into severe energy shock, causing supply shortages in energy and aluminum markets.

    3 sourcesInternational Energy Agency · International Monetary Fund · World Bank
  6. Projected by end of 2026

    Mercuria projects a roughly 2 million ton deficit in the aluminum market.

    1 sourceMercuria

Potential Impact

  1. 01

    Limited replacement capacity in China, U.S., and Europe may prolong market vulnerability.

  2. 02

    Aluminum prices may sustain multi-year highs due to ongoing supply shortages.

  3. 03

    Energy market shortages could extend to broader commodity disruptions.

  4. 04

    ETFs like DBB and IYM may see continued volatility tied to aluminum price fluctuations.

  5. 05

    Global aluminum deficit could exceed 2 million tons if Middle East smelters fail to restart in Q2 2026.

Transparency Panel

Sources cross-referenced1
Framing risk0/100 (low)
Confidence score65%
Synthesized bySubstrate AI
Word count310 words
PublishedApr 22, 2026, 11:40 AM
Bias signals removed4 across 4 outlets
Signal Breakdown
Loaded 3Speculative 1

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