Atlantic hurricane season has one named storm by mid-July, near average pace

The Atlantic hurricane season has produced only one named storm through July 18, 2026, the quietest start since 2009, Cnn reported. Tropical Storm Arthur formed along the Texas coast in June and brought life-threatening flooding to parts of the Gulf Coast. El Niño was officially declared in June and is suspected of driving the suppression.

Wind shear over the Caribbean Sea recorded its second-highest start to July since satellite records began in 1979, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data analyzed by Michael Lowry. “The number one calling card of El Niño is that wind shear,” Lowry said.

Matthew Rosencrans of NOAA stated that current wind shear matches El Niño expectations closely enough that the two are likely related, though full confirmation studies will not appear until after the season ends in November.

Levi Silvers, a research scientist and co-author of Colorado State University forecasts, said it is very likely that El Niño is causing the shear. Colorado State University has already lowered its seasonal storm outlook in response to growing confidence that a Super El Niño will develop. A vast majority of pre-season forecasts had anticipated a quieter year because of the expected El Niño.

The second named storm of an average season forms around July 17, so the basin is not yet behind the typical pace. Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico remain extremely warm and could support development if any system avoids the shear. Computer models indicate a chance of tropical activity in the eastern Gulf early next week, though heavy rain is the primary near-term impact along Florida’s west coast whether or not a storm organizes.