Former Official Recommends Australia Explore Leasing Submarines from Japan as AUKUS Backup

A former senior Australian defense official has recommended that Australia consider leasing conventionally powered submarines from Japan as a backup option if challenges arise with the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine pact. The suggestion was made in a report for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, amid preparations for a meeting between the Australian prime minister and Japan's prime minister in Canberra on Monday.

Japan's prime minister, who arrived in Canberra late Sunday, is set to discuss with the Australian prime minister ways to strengthen economic security, including securing energy and gas supplies following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The leaders are also expected to address partnerships on critical minerals to reduce risks of economic coercion by China.

A former Japanese ambassador to Australia stated that the leaders should coordinate to ensure the Trump administration maintains focus on the Indo-Pacific region and prevents any power vacuum that Beijing could exploit.

Richard Gray, who held senior defense roles including deputy director of defense intelligence, proposed that Australia request Japan's assistance for a 'plan B' in case of hurdles with AUKUS. Gray highlighted risks in extending the life of Australia's ageing Collins-class submarines, acquiring Virginia-class submarines from the United States, and developing a new nuclear-powered class with the United Kingdom.

He suggested leasing small numbers of advanced conventional submarines from Japan to bridge any capability gaps. Japan operates a fleet of 24 diesel-electric attack submarines, including seven Oyashio-class, twelve Sōryū-class, and five Taigei-class vessels, with active production lines capable of producing one advanced submarine per year and potential for increased output.

Gray emphasized that this option would require immediate engagement due to political, diplomatic, and practical considerations, such as costs, funding, industrial production, and crew familiarization. He noted that leasing from Japan could provide interim capability until nuclear-powered submarines are delivered, without abandoning AUKUS.

The chair of a British parliamentary inquiry last week stated that funding challenges are emerging in the AUKUS pact. Australia has signed a contract to purchase Mogami-class frigates from Japan, indicating strengthening defense ties. In March, senior defense official Hugh Jeffrey stated that defense efforts are focused on pursuing AUKUS with no ventures into alternative plans.

Japan's prime minister won an election in February after expressing views on China. Last year, she stated in parliament that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute an existential crisis for Japan, potentially allowing military action. Following that statement, China cut off rare earth supplies to Japan.

A former ambassador described her approach as direct and noted her willingness for candid dialogue on China with the Australian prime minister. The former ambassador, who served from 2020 to 2023, highlighted the importance of the Japan-Australia relationship, especially amid the Trump administration's focus on the war with Iran, to avoid adventurism by authoritarian states in the region.