Global Expert Panel Launched to Aid Fossil Fuel Transition

A panel of global experts has been launched to offer scientific input for countries seeking to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and address risks from high oil prices, geopolitical conflicts, and extreme weather. The panel was announced on the opening day of a climate action meeting in Santa Marta, Colombia, held from April 24 to 29.

More than 50 nations, dozens of subnational governments, and about 2,800 civil society representatives are attending the conference, described as a coalition aimed at reducing emissions from oil, gas, and coal.

The panel, modeled partly on the UK's climate change committee, includes national and sector-level milestones for eliminating fossil fuels in line with scenarios limiting global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. It is chaired by Vera Songwe, co-chair of the High Level Expert Panel on Climate Finance; Ottmar Edenhofer, director and chief economist of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; and Gilberto M Jannuzzi, professor of energy systems at Universidade Estadual de Campinas.

Gilberto M Jannuzzi stated that there is still time for an energy transition, noting that the challenges involve disseminating information and securing financing.

The panel's formation follows calls by the president of Cop30 to establish roadmaps for accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels and deforestation. André Aranha Corrêa do Lago encouraged governments and institutions to use the panel's analyses, policy briefs, and engagements to strengthen nationally determined contributions and sectoral strategies.

The initiative has been convened by Johan Rockström of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Carlos Nobre of the University of São Paulo. Johan Rockström said the attendance of a third of the world's countries at the meeting would help maintain focus on the transition and demonstrate achievable methods.

The 54 attending countries include fossil fuel producers such as Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil, and Angola. Colombia presented a draft roadmap for its energy transition, which derives about half of its export revenues from coal. The plan indicates that reducing fossil fuel use by 90% by 2050 would allow energy demand to grow while generating direct economic benefits estimated at $280 billion over the next 24 years.

The roadmap states that upfront investment is needed, but by the early 2040s, it would deliver annual net savings to the economy. Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds, said the roadmap shows it is cost-effective to phase out petrol and diesel and build renewables, while emphasizing energy security.

Forster expressed hope that other countries would develop similar roadmaps and climate councils to build internal capacity.