Goldman Sachs Analyst Notes Limited Signs of Labor Market Shift Since 2019
A Goldman Sachs report finds fewer office jobs in AI-exposed roles and lower recruiting activity in those occupations. The analysis shows the occupation-level mismatch index has fallen below pre-pandemic levels.
A Goldman Sachs note examined whether the labor market is shifting away from office roles toward trades such as plumbing and electrical work. The report counted 450,000 fewer positions in office occupations where AI tools are already in use. Recruiting activity for jobs most exposed to AI substitution has returned to pre-pandemic levels.
Sachs analyst Elsie Peng wrote that the occupation-level version of the Lazear-Spletzer mismatch index has declined from its 2022 peak and now sits below its pre-pandemic level. Peng stated there are no perfect ways to test the theory that there are too many coders and not enough plumbers, but the data show gradual change since 2019.
The note did not project future hiring needs or quantify how many additional trade positions may be required.
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