ISW Says Ukraine Recaptured More Territory Than It Lost in April

The Institute for the Study of War said Ukraine may have reversed the trend of Russian territorial gains in April, recapturing more land than it lost for the first time in recent months. That figure covered only firmly controlled territory and excluded grey zones where both sides maintained positions.

Russian forces have used infiltration tactics in part to create the perception of continuous advances, the ISW said. It added that Russian forces do not control those infiltration areas. The ISW has recorded a progressive slowing of the Russian rate of advance by at least two-thirds over the past 18 months.

Russian forces seized an average of 2.9 square kilometres per day in the first third of 2026, down from 9.76 square kilometres per day in the same period of 2025.

Putin has prioritised capturing the remainder of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. The area includes a fortress belt of fortified cities: Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Konstiantynivka and Druzhkivka. Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii said Russian assaults in the area noticeably increased in April.

Moscow has claimed gradual advances in Konstiantynivka, but the ISW reported infiltration in 10.14 percent of the city and control of only 0.7 percent of its eastern outskirts.

Ukraine stated that Russia suffered higher casualties than its recruitment rate could replace for the fifth consecutive month. Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said 35,203 Russian soldiers were eliminated or seriously wounded in April. Fedorov added that Russia was gradually drowning in losses.

In March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy cited Russian documents showing 62 percent of casualties were deaths. Last year Russia lost about 14,000 soldiers per month, according to Fedorov. The increase in lethality appears to be a recent development.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine would expand mid-range strikes on Russian rear areas. Fedorov reported that strikes over 20 kilometres doubled from March and quadrupled from February.

Ukraine struck several Russian refineries and oil facilities in early May. It hit the Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea for the fourth time in two weeks on May 1 and the Perm refinery 1,000 kilometres inside Russia the same night. On May 2, Ukrainian surface drones raided two Russian oil tankers near Novorossiysk.

The same night, the Ukraine Security Service struck a missile carrier, a patrol boat and a tanker at the port of Primorsk in the Baltic Sea, damaging the oil terminal. On May 5, Ukraine struck the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery in the Leningrad region.

Reuters reported the facility stopped operations after three of four distillation towers were damaged. Zelenskyy said Flamingo drones flew 1,500 kilometres to strike a manufacturer of navigation modules for Russian naval, air and rocket forces in Cheboksary on May 5.

Ukraine also struck Su-57 fighter jets and Su-34 bombers at the Shagol Airfield in Chelyabinsk, more than 1,600 kilometres inside Russia. Zelenskyy stated on May 1 that Russia had lost at least $7 billion in oil revenue since the start of the year from Ukrainian strikes, downtime and shipment delays.

Bloomberg reported average refinery output fell to 4.69 million barrels per day in April, the lowest since 2009. Russia's Ministry of Finance said mineral extraction revenues doubled to $12 billion in April compared with March, with $10 billion from oil.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov expected May oil revenues to rise by $2.7 billion.

Ukraine's relations with Hungary and Slovakia improved in the past week. Zelenskyy said on May 2 that he invited Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico to Kyiv and received an invitation to Bratislava. Fico had vetoed Ukrainian EU accession talks in June 2025 but relented in September.

Hungary's new leadership returned $82 million in cash and valuables seized by the previous government. Zelenskyy described the return as a constructive and civilised step. A poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations found 54 percent of Hungarians still oppose Ukraine's EU accession.